Even though I fully intend on owning a home -free & clear- by the time I retire, it’s becoming increasingly clear that home ownership in the next 3-5 years isn’t necessarily compatible with my future goals/plans. Unless the housing market drops 20% and I can suddenly buy condos for under $250,000, that is.
I ran an analysis on New York Time’s Rent or Buy calculator:
Assumptions:
–> Monthly Rent: $1,100 (that’s actually almost $350+ more than what I’m paying now. But I can get a one bedroom apartment for $1,100 in the area where I want to buy, whereas right now I have a roommate).
–> Home Price: $300,000 (If I buy, I’ll probably buy a one-bedroom apartment. If I buy a 2-bed/2-bath, the price will probably be around $450,000+ in a good area).
–> Down Payment: 15%, or $45,000
–> Mortgage Rate: 6.25%
–> Annual Property Tax: 2.25% to account for HOA fees.
–> Annual home appreciation: 5%. That seems like a reasonable assumption.. no?
–> Annual rent increase: 7% (a little on the high side).
Under these assumptions, buying is better than rent after 10 years. Is that.. good? I was looking for more of the 7-8 year range. If I buy a 2 bedroom ($450,000) and still put down 15%, buying will be better than renting after 20 years. That’s practically a kid.
The reasons why it wouldn’t make sense for me to buy would be: I want to travel. I might go back to graduate school. I want to preserve liquidity at this point in my life. Even though I love my area and it’s close to my parents, I don’t know if I want the commitment of home ownership right now. I don’t want to become house poor.
From an opportunity cost perspective, home ownership probably would not be the right move for me, given the assumptions listed above. There’s really no rush, right? I’m only 23. Even if I wait 10 years to buy, I’ll still ONLY be 33… which, at that point, 30s will be the new 20s.
I am still concentrating on building a cash (is king) reserve for short-to-medium term goals in my money market fund. Buying in 2 years (when the real estate market is supposed to “bottom out”) may be a good investment if prices heat up again, but I’m of the view that a primary home is not an “investment” – certainly not in the way that a well-diversified portfolio or rental property is.
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{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
I’m soooo not into home ownership right now. I am working on increasing cash, but it is below maxing out retirement accounts (which I’m not able to do… yet). For similar reasons, but the main one being I don’t want to commit to an area for even 5 years just yet. i want to go overseas. Buying a home just seems inconvenient. I am ok with renting a tiny one bedroom apartment, but if I were buying for keeps, I’d have to upgrade…. and pay more.. anyway, it is just not for me. Not yet.
I think you are smart for recognizing that although house ownership is trumped up to be “the thing to do”, it has its risks, and is a LOT of responsibility. I’m in the same position as you, and came up with the same conclusion.
Being young, you don’t want to take opportunity out of your life to buy a home. There will always be homes for sale… today, tomorrow, ten years from now. But your youth and health will steady climb up and deteriorate. Don’t miss a chance to travel or go to graduate school for “a house”.
As harsh as this next part is, it’s very real. I’m a total long-term saver person. Personal finance has turned into a hobby. But you know what, we’re all going to die someday. On my death bed, I’ll be okay with having less home equity but having lived life to the fullest. I’m not saying be financially irresponsible and live each day as if it’s your last, but really, you are only young ONCE. You have all those days ahead of you to tie you down with a mortgage.
Also, I think that buying a house is sort of the “last step” or “ultimate” thing to do once all the other ducks are lined up…. I would suggest maxing out retirement contributions, creating a good, liquid emergency cash stash before you take on home ownership. Houses come and go… but retirement steadily “comes”.
Plus, your investment in a house is only as good as the market it’s in. Personally, I am going to wait a few years until things simmer down, the last thing I need is a disaterous start to my life! (I’m 22!)
I so relate to you in that I’ve had this same conversation with myself about buying vs. renting. All your conclusions are like mine: unless I’m ready to commit to this location (I’m not) and to the responsibilities of a home (not yet), I shouldn’t buy.
My area is much more affordable than the West Coast, so many young professionals buy houses less than 3 years out of school. I think it’s too young – it becomes a hindrance because when you’ve got a yard and a dog you can’t just go away for the weekend, and even meeting for drinks & dinner is hard because most are buying the affordable properties 15+ miles outside the city, in all directions.
I just stumbled across your blog while clicking away, and just thought I’d say hi
I’ve given up on the idea of buying a place in San Francisco. At this point in my life, I want to see as many different cities as possible exploring each one until I’m ready to settle. I also don’t want all the responsibilities of maintenance, paying property taxes, insurance and other extra responsibilities associated with buying a home.
as someone who’s bought over a dozen houses, I can tell you home ownership is over-rated. especially when its likely to drop for the next few years.
I still own several rentals but I rent my primary residence – its much cheaper than owning!